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Theory Of Changes
A framework is a structure that can help organise the theory that supports or comes from your research. Frameworks can be used both when planning an intervention or when describing the outcomes of an intervention. There are many different frameworks and it is important to thick carefully and critically about which framework will work best for your study. This section will provide information on when, how, and why to use some of the major frameworks that can be found in the adolescent health literature.
Theory of Change in the health sector is defined as “an outcomes- based approach which applies critical thinking to the design, implementation, and evaluation of initiatives and programmes intended to support change in their context”. It essentially answers the question “how” your intervention works to create change or impact in the short, medium and long term. As described in this “How to build a theory of change” guide, your theory of change should be:
- Credible – based on previous experience and insight from your different stakeholders or relevant research where appropriate.
- Achievable – you have the necessary resources to carry out the intervention
- Supported – your stakeholders will be involved in defining and agreeing your theory of change, which builds support for it
- Testable – a complete but not over-complicated description of your work and its outcomes, with prioritised outcomes for measurement and indicators to collect data against them.
An example of the theory of change model used for the DREAMS programme established by PEPFAR to prevent HIV amongst adolescent girls and young women can be found in this 2018 publication.
The development assistance framework defines the theory of change (ToC) as a method that explains how a given intervention, or set of interventions, are expected to lead to a specific development change, drawing on a causal analysis based on available evidence. To draw a linear line of causality between the intervention and the desired outcomes, researchers need to conduct a baseline study by measuring the concept to be changed, e.g. levels of HIV knowledge among young people or disease burden in adolescents that are about to enter clinical trials. The baseline measure is followed by socio-behavioural or clinical interventions over a defined period of time and then an end line assessment at the end. The fundamental point is that researchers gather sufficient evidence to prove that a particular intervention is bringing about the intended outcomes, and that such an intervention can be replicated in similar settings to achieve desired results.
Benefits of theory of change
- Theory of change assists researchers in developing and presenting a clear illustration of how the intervention has changed a less desirable situation to a positive ideal state.
- Theory of change helps to identify the myths and misconceptions that may contribute to harmful behaviours in particular among adolescents and make it possible to develop a targeted behavioural change intervention.
- Theory of change serves as the map that illustrates the relationship between the interventions and outcomes and also shows how outcomes are related to adolescent health matters.
- Theory of change is a premise for understanding how the progress, change and development has been achieved, and how efficient the intervention is. In the context of rapid physical and psychological developments in adolescents it is important to have a centre piece that can be controlled and measured. Theory of change serves as the centre piece methodology for measuring the effectiveness of the intervention.
- Theory of change results assist in developing achievement measures, key performance indicators, and strategic implementation decisions.
- Theory of change results can be used as a framework for making strategic project decisions.
- The consistent monitoring of the activities and recording evidence ensures that the project is on track and adheres to the planned project timelines
How to adopt a theory of change
The best time to start using the Theory of change is at the planning phase of the project and or intervention. This is because Theory of change is both a methodology and a tool for thinking through the steps of the project from the problem situation, implementation / intervention through to recording and measuring the outcomes. It is also useful as the monitoring and evaluation tool, therefore used throughout the lifecycle of the project.
In order to show a causal relationship between the intervention and the outcomes, it is prudent to start recording all the activities from the start of the process and chronologically follow the process using the route map to the desired outcomes.
Other things to consider:
The Impact measurement guide is a tool for designing and implementing ToC in different settings such as development projects and research projects. The guide suggests that an effective ToC is aligned against the following components:
- Inputs – resources required to carry out activities (e.g. funding, drugs, vehicles, computers etc.)
- Activities – the actual interventions (e.g. focus group discussions, physical examinations etc.)
- Outputs – Immediate results (e.g. adolescents registering to an online SRH webinar after the focus group discussion)
- Outcomes – Intended and unintended changes on project beneficiaries
- Impact – long term systematic changes that occur as a direct result of the intervention
An important aspect of Theory of change is constant monitoring and recording to gather evidence that it is the intervention that is yielding the outcomes, whether intended or not.
- Identify a development challenge (e.g. adolescents unable to access contraceptives) or research problem (feasibility of rolling out contraceptives at schools)
- Identify what is needed for the desired development changes to happen
- What evidence / literature is available that can serve as the baseline or rationalisation for the proposed intervention
- Identify risks and opportunities (e.g. existing district health systems, parental objection to rolling out contraceptives programmes in schools)
- Develop a project monitoring matrix that outlines the intended outcomes and key indicators for measuring progress
Theory of change is a sensitive change management tool in that both the donors and project beneficiaries need to know that there is a true causal relationship between the intervention and the reported results. It is crucial to manage the expectations of the donors by providing consistent communications and UNDAF suggests the following principles when developing a donor sensitive theory of change:
- It should be developed consultatively to reflect the understanding of all relevant stakeholders;
- It should be grounded in, tested with, and revised based on robust evidence at all stages; and
- It should support continuous learning and improvement from programme design to closure
BY YOLISWA NTSEPE (MA, PhD)
ADOLESCENT PROGRAMMES MANAGER
UPDATED NOV 22, 2023
TABLE OF CONTENTS:
REFERENCES & ADDITIONAL RESOURCES:
Examples of change models and guidelines that can be adapted to the various HIV health interventions:
Impact measurement guide https://www.sopact.com/theory-of-change
Logic models in theory of change: https://whatworks.org.nz/logic-model/
Guidance developing a logic model: https://www.aacu.org/sites/default/files/LogicModel.pdf
Theory of change: UNDAF companion guide https://unsdg.un.org/sites/default/files/UNDG-UNDAF-Companion-Pieces-7-Theory-of-Change.pdf
Kurt Lewin’s Change Management Model – https://www.managementstudyguide.com/kurt-lewins-change-management-model.htm
Nudge Theory: ‘Nudge – Improving Decisions about Health, Wealth and Happiness’ – http://changemanagementinsight.com/nudge-theory-in-change-management/
Kübler-Ross Change Curve: The ‘change curve’ is based on the original work of Elizabeth Kubler-Ross, describes the internal emotional journey that individuals typically experience when dealing with change and transition. https://www.changequest.co.uk/resources/kubler-ross-change-curve/
https://www.theoryofchange.org/what-is-theory-of-change/
How to build a theory of change.
https://knowhow.ncvo.org.uk/how-to/how-to-build-a-theory-of-change